Ballot Box Musings

Where I question myself on voting, and guess what others will do

It’s 3:00 pm, and I have 5 more hours to vote. That I haven’t done so already, either when the ballots opened, or in the advance polls, speaks more to my doubts over the process than it does to my busy schedule. So I’ve decided to share my inner dialogue over my own decision of whether to vote or not in today’s essay. And, for those interested in what I think will happen tonight, at the bottom of this essay I’m going to guess what the vote breakdown will be.

My inner dialogue has me listing the pros and cons of voting today.

Con: I don’t believe I’m going to win. So, if my vote is not going to count, why take the time out of my schedule to cast it?

Pro: I don’t know - I cannot predict the future. Though everything I’ve learned so far leads me to believe I won’t win, there’s still a tiny possibility that I will - who knows how the civic mind works - maybe Climenhaga is close enough on the ballot to Chow that people will mark the Climenhaga box. Maybe everyone except my supporters will forget to vote. Maybe there’s some other unlikely scenario I haven’t considered. If it doesn’t cost me anything to vote (which it doesn’t - my voting station is around the corner), I might as well do it, just in case. Also, if anyone in power is looking at the voting breakdown, they will see that at least one person in Toronto wants fare free transit and the conversion of asphalt to orchards, so perhaps they will take that into consideration when they make policy going forward.

Con: I don’t believe this process has been fair and I don’t want my vote to legitimize it. I feel our elections reinforce everything that I see wrong with the way we live. To win the election requires media coverage so that voters know who candidates are. To get regular media coverage, of the sort that the top candidates have received, requires that the media be interested. The media is primarily interested in people who have followed the unwritten rules of our current economic and political system. This means that only people who have succeeded in systems that destroy our environment, manipulate others or create conflict can win. How then can we have change through those systems if our elections only reward those who thrive in them?

Pro: If I had never followed any media coverage, never read what other people thought and ignored my own biases, I could go into that voting booth with a light heart and see it for what it is - an opportunity for me to say who I want in power. Whether it’s flawed or corrupt or unfair is not actually up to me. All I need to do is to vote or not vote, and voting is easy if I’m not burdened by my assumptions.

Con: I don’t believe we should have the type of government structure we’re voting for the leader of. Having top down government over three million people seems to be the wrong way to go, and I increasingly believe that hierarchical authority of the sort we have is inherently tyrannical (I find resonance in the writings of Darren Allen if you’d like to read more on this topic). I believe the needs that we try in vain to get government to meet should be met instead by ourselves as individuals within closely connected communities. So why would I vote for a mayor when I don’t think we should have one?

Pro: It’s not up to me to decide what structure is best for 3 million people. What gets done with the voting results, and who creates, reinforces or dismantles the structure is not within my hands. My only role here is to decide what’s best for myself. So again, I can vote for myself and my vision. I know my vision is the one I want. And I know that voting gives me a place to say that.

Ultimately, my ruminations stem from the fact that I tend to overthink. I spend a lot of time dwelling on my problems as if I’ll find the answers to life in my mind, which I seldom, if ever do. If I keep ruminating on whether or not to vote I’ll never even get out the door (which in itself would be a decision). But if I take a step back the solution is right in front of me. Today, the right answer for me is to go vote. And, to remember, as Bill Murray said to his team in Meatballs, either way, “it just doesn’t matter”.

Now for my predictions for tonight’s election results.

I started to make a detailed list and then realized I couldn’t - the list is simply too long. So I’m providing more general predictions:

I guess Olivia Chow will win with around 150,000 votes. I’d guess another 200,000-300,000 will be split by the candidates covered by the media (Bailao, Bradford, Furey, Hunter, Matlow, Saunders). After them (or even potentially above a couple of them) will come Chloe Brown who is a good news story in both this election and the last since she was able to gather a lot of supporters just through her policy ideas. Then Ben Bankas and Chris Saccoccia, who will each get a substantial number of votes from devoted audiences who aren’t swayed by their lack of coverage in mainstream news. There’s wild card Xiao Hua Gong, who has advertised substantially but declined media interviews. I have no idea how many votes such advertising will yield but I don’t think it’ll be less than 10,000 or more than 20,000. For the candidates who have held office before but haven’t received major coverage I’m guessing they will get between 5000 and 10000 votes each. All other candidates - all those who haven’t held office or been recognized by the media - I would expect to each receive between 1,000 and 4,000 - basically the largest number of people who can be physically reached and convinced without the aid of money, advertising, or viral social media posts. As for myself? I’m guessing around 1000 votes. I got close to 7000 last time but my media coverage and campaign activity were both far higher last time. And, I think a lot of my past supporters were politically engaged and more likely to have chosen me from the existing pool of candidates rather than being solely devoted to me. With a bigger and more well known pool of candidates I think those voters will choose someone else. This isn’t self criticism (I don’t think), it just feels like a realistic assessment of who votes for me.

The only reason I’m interested in making these guesses is that they show me what my own experience of the world leads me to believe. I make these guesses based on who I talk to, what I read, my past experience in political campaigns. When I see how they deviate from the actual results I’ll be able to see the errors I’ve made from my assumptions. And seeing mistakes in my thinking always helps remind me to check my certainty when the next round of assumptions comes along.

This concludes the Mayoral Edition of Sarah’s Thoughts Substack. Thank you for joining me throughout the campaign, and I hope you have a great election day whether you vote or not!